Market analysts anticipate that Bitcoin miners could potentially sell off approximately $5 billion worth of Bitcoin in the months following the upcoming halving event, a pattern observed in previous cycles.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, suggested in an April 13 report that Bitcoin miners might liquidate $5 billion in BTC post-halving. He noted that this selling pressure could persist for four to six months, leading to a sideways trend in Bitcoin’s price, as seen in past halving cycles.
Thielen highlighted the historical trend of Bitcoin prices remaining range-bound for several months after the halving. With this year’s halving scheduled around April 20, the market may not witness a significant upward trend until around October, mirroring previous post-halving patterns.
Additionally, Thielen emphasized miners’ tendency to accumulate BTC leading up to the halving, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance and subsequent price rally. However, he cautioned that post-halving, miners may gradually sell off their inventory to avoid revenue declines, potentially impacting Bitcoin prices.
Specifically, Thielen mentioned Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, which has accumulated inventory likely to be sold post-halving to mitigate revenue losses. He estimated that Marathon’s daily supply could increase post-halving, potentially adding significant selling pressure to the market.
Thielen concluded that if other miners adopt a similar strategy, the market could witness substantial daily Bitcoin sales post-halving, potentially reversing the recent price rally driven by supply-demand dynamics.
Moreover, Thielen highlighted the potential impact on altcoins, noting their decline from peak values in 2021 and the historical delay in post-halving altcoin rallies.
In terms of market dynamics, analysts predict continued positive flows into Bitcoin ETFs following the halving, driven by investors seeking to capitalize on the anticipated bullish cycle. Additionally, the rapid growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs since SEC approval in January has contributed to Bitcoin’s all-time high, indicating continued positive momentum in the ETF market post-halving.